Just to clarify my observations: from January 23 thru October 23 the initial jobs reports showed a total increase of 2,725,000 jobs but after the second revisions downward each month, the total number dropped to 2,308,000 for a difference of 417,000 jobs in ten months.
I do not trust the jobs numbers as over the last couple of years the initial reports are always downgraded twice. I believe the initial reports are grossly inflated.
I agree. The initial reports tend to often be misleading. I think there are kinks in the sources of the data and the collection methods. That said, the fact is that over the past two years, the US economy has been creating over 200k jobs average per month. See this report: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf showing historical data. Past months get revised lower or higher to reflect more accurate actuals. The labor market is still strong in the US to support a 2% average GDP growth rate which lends credence to the soft landing thesis. Cheers!
Just to clarify my observations: from January 23 thru October 23 the initial jobs reports showed a total increase of 2,725,000 jobs but after the second revisions downward each month, the total number dropped to 2,308,000 for a difference of 417,000 jobs in ten months.
I do not trust the jobs numbers as over the last couple of years the initial reports are always downgraded twice. I believe the initial reports are grossly inflated.
I agree. The initial reports tend to often be misleading. I think there are kinks in the sources of the data and the collection methods. That said, the fact is that over the past two years, the US economy has been creating over 200k jobs average per month. See this report: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf showing historical data. Past months get revised lower or higher to reflect more accurate actuals. The labor market is still strong in the US to support a 2% average GDP growth rate which lends credence to the soft landing thesis. Cheers!