GM Marina - The US Feds dot plot is a graph that the committee publishes 4 times a year (I think it is quarterly) where each committee member and some of the staff put up their projections inflation, interest rates, economic growth etc. for the next 3 years.
When all these individual projects are plotted on the graph, we can get a sense of what the committee is expecting in the economy and more importantly whether they are more amenable to cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.
Use this link to see the most recent dot plot which they published in late Dec.
If you look at the Dec 2024 column, it generally signals that the Feds are expecting to deliver three 0.25% rate cuts this year. However, markets are pricing in upto six such rate cuts.
The dot plot is the only data collection that I am aware of that shows how the entire committee is thinking about future economic conditions and rates. Other than the dot plot, Wall Street ends up parsing through individual speeches and interviews with committee members which does not always give the big picture sentiment in the committee.
Great podcast, I love the content as always. Just reporting on a technical glitch. Unfortunately the transcript window when using an iPhone makes it very difficult to read. As you are scrolling down, the screen keeps pushing back up, and it makes the reading almost impossible.
Miguel. Thanks for the heads up. Can you please tell me which browser and iPhone model you are using? I can then report this issue to Substack accordingly. I am using Google Chrome on an iPhone 13 and the scrolling works fine. Perhaps the issue is for a specific setup. Please let me know and I will report the issue. Thanks.
Of course. Anytime! Thanks for the specs. The transcription feature is currently in Beta so this kind of feedback is useful for the Substack team. I will pass it on. Cheers!
Great podcast Beach. Can you explain what a dot plot is. I've seen the graph used a few times, just curious. Thanks.
GM Marina - The US Feds dot plot is a graph that the committee publishes 4 times a year (I think it is quarterly) where each committee member and some of the staff put up their projections inflation, interest rates, economic growth etc. for the next 3 years.
When all these individual projects are plotted on the graph, we can get a sense of what the committee is expecting in the economy and more importantly whether they are more amenable to cutting interest rates sooner rather than later.
Use this link to see the most recent dot plot which they published in late Dec.
https://open.substack.com/pub/beachman/p/market-whispers-dec-15th-2023?r=12ociv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
If you look at the Dec 2024 column, it generally signals that the Feds are expecting to deliver three 0.25% rate cuts this year. However, markets are pricing in upto six such rate cuts.
The dot plot is the only data collection that I am aware of that shows how the entire committee is thinking about future economic conditions and rates. Other than the dot plot, Wall Street ends up parsing through individual speeches and interviews with committee members which does not always give the big picture sentiment in the committee.
Beach - thank you so much for the explanation! This is why I'm a member. You're a great teacher!
Great podcast, I love the content as always. Just reporting on a technical glitch. Unfortunately the transcript window when using an iPhone makes it very difficult to read. As you are scrolling down, the screen keeps pushing back up, and it makes the reading almost impossible.
Miguel. Thanks for the heads up. Can you please tell me which browser and iPhone model you are using? I can then report this issue to Substack accordingly. I am using Google Chrome on an iPhone 13 and the scrolling works fine. Perhaps the issue is for a specific setup. Please let me know and I will report the issue. Thanks.
I am using an iPhone 15 Pro with Google Chrome. Thanks for caring.
Of course. Anytime! Thanks for the specs. The transcription feature is currently in Beta so this kind of feedback is useful for the Substack team. I will pass it on. Cheers!