Don't think you have it correct on Bitcoin. Last time it saw a death cross was early August 2024. Days prior, it made its local low below $50k, before climbing over 100% in 4 months time to over $100k.
In addition, it lost its 200D MA, but stayed above its 50W MA (excluding wicks), also just like August.
It could always go lower, but that is far from a guarantee IMO. In fact, I think it's possible that it set its low for the year in the $74/75k area. We shall see.
Do you think the Aug 2024 death cross followed by golden cross (Nov 2024) repeats for BTC this year? I think we need a catalyst now for this to happen. I dont see such a catalyst on the horizon. The Trump admin has promised lots of crypto friendly regs and actions...perhaps that will help. I want to reestablish my IBIT position...so I am waiting for a better entry. I think we will get that in Q3 2025 when all the Trump euphoria has burned off. Cheers!
Not sure if we get exact same scenario with golden cross shortly following, but I think it's possible. Will list some potential upcoming catalysts though:
1) Global liquidity/M2 is increasing significantly, which Bitcoin has been correlated with quite strongly. Lyn Alden has a good article on this. Upon my examination and others, Bitcoin has traded pretty closely with it but with a 3-4 month lag. This would place a low between mid-April to mid-May, possible it has already occurred but not definite.
2) Possible Texas and/or Arizona state legislature pass a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the next month or so before their spring sessions end. It only has to clear one more vote in both states and then on to the Governor's desk. Abbott would sign, AZ gov is more of an unknown here.
3) US Gov continues to work on Bitcoin accumulation strategy. May go through Congress via Lummis bill (also may be modified), but they have also mentioned the potential to use revenues from tariffs to acquire more Bitcoin.
4) Multiple public companies adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies. GME has recently announced theirs and also issued convertible debt in addition to their large cash position to acquire Bitcoin. Rumor is that 2 other public companies will be doing something similar to be announced fairly soon. My guess is that one is Dell, don't know about the other, but we'll see.
Caveat: Bitcoin has been closely correlated with NDQ/SPX of late. I think it breaks this correlation in the next 3 months, but it is correlated with them until it isn't.
Overall: I think buying in the 70's is great and buying in the 80's is also a good long term entry. I would be very surprised if we break below previous ATH around $72/73k. A wick is possible into $69k, but thats not my base case. I think the local low is in at $74/75k, but time will tell.
Assuming we do get through this short term unscathed I assume capital will continue to flow out of the US as the trade deficit decreases while earnings estimates get dialed back. The combination implies pressure on both earnings and multiples.
I have the exact same concern and something I am watching closely and wrote about recently. Do you have any opinion on how much acceleration of the basis trade might have impacted this massive move recently? If bonds recover there is much more confidence going into this potential reversal. If not resolved it will probably put a lid on the upside for now.
Don't think you have it correct on Bitcoin. Last time it saw a death cross was early August 2024. Days prior, it made its local low below $50k, before climbing over 100% in 4 months time to over $100k.
In addition, it lost its 200D MA, but stayed above its 50W MA (excluding wicks), also just like August.
It could always go lower, but that is far from a guarantee IMO. In fact, I think it's possible that it set its low for the year in the $74/75k area. We shall see.
Do you think the Aug 2024 death cross followed by golden cross (Nov 2024) repeats for BTC this year? I think we need a catalyst now for this to happen. I dont see such a catalyst on the horizon. The Trump admin has promised lots of crypto friendly regs and actions...perhaps that will help. I want to reestablish my IBIT position...so I am waiting for a better entry. I think we will get that in Q3 2025 when all the Trump euphoria has burned off. Cheers!
Not sure if we get exact same scenario with golden cross shortly following, but I think it's possible. Will list some potential upcoming catalysts though:
1) Global liquidity/M2 is increasing significantly, which Bitcoin has been correlated with quite strongly. Lyn Alden has a good article on this. Upon my examination and others, Bitcoin has traded pretty closely with it but with a 3-4 month lag. This would place a low between mid-April to mid-May, possible it has already occurred but not definite.
2) Possible Texas and/or Arizona state legislature pass a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in the next month or so before their spring sessions end. It only has to clear one more vote in both states and then on to the Governor's desk. Abbott would sign, AZ gov is more of an unknown here.
3) US Gov continues to work on Bitcoin accumulation strategy. May go through Congress via Lummis bill (also may be modified), but they have also mentioned the potential to use revenues from tariffs to acquire more Bitcoin.
4) Multiple public companies adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies. GME has recently announced theirs and also issued convertible debt in addition to their large cash position to acquire Bitcoin. Rumor is that 2 other public companies will be doing something similar to be announced fairly soon. My guess is that one is Dell, don't know about the other, but we'll see.
Caveat: Bitcoin has been closely correlated with NDQ/SPX of late. I think it breaks this correlation in the next 3 months, but it is correlated with them until it isn't.
Overall: I think buying in the 70's is great and buying in the 80's is also a good long term entry. I would be very surprised if we break below previous ATH around $72/73k. A wick is possible into $69k, but thats not my base case. I think the local low is in at $74/75k, but time will tell.
Hope this helps in some way!
Best regards
Assuming we do get through this short term unscathed I assume capital will continue to flow out of the US as the trade deficit decreases while earnings estimates get dialed back. The combination implies pressure on both earnings and multiples.
I agree. Hard to turn this shift around now.
I have the exact same concern and something I am watching closely and wrote about recently. Do you have any opinion on how much acceleration of the basis trade might have impacted this massive move recently? If bonds recover there is much more confidence going into this potential reversal. If not resolved it will probably put a lid on the upside for now.
https://thesetupfactory.substack.com/p/something-is-broken?r=2ovibs