Stocks to own now: Part 1 - Theses, convictions, questions and performance
Portfolio: What's in Beachman's portfolio and how are these stocks doing?
Now that we are almost done with the Q4 earnings season, I plan to take stock of the holdings in my portfolio, review how they have performed (Q4 earnings and stock price) and decide whether any tweaks are needed - buys, sells, adds, trims etc.
P.S. I still have to publish earnings reviews of a few more stocks. Since I analyze 4-5 quarter forward looking trends, I wait for updated analyst estimates to complete my write up. Analysts usually need a few days to complete their DCF (discounted cash flow) calculations and my reports then follow.
For each of the stocks that I own, I want to provide the following:
Investment thesis - why I own the stock
Conviction level - how confident I am about their long term prospects and why
Growth trend - Is the company’s growth going to pivot higher or leg lower
Risks - Potential risks or issues that could undermine my conviction
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I also intend to answer readers’ questions such as these:
If I am in a large cash position, should I buy now?
What should I buy and when?
When will markets bottom in 2023?
Which sectors will perform better in 2023?
Which stocks should be on our watchlists?
If you have other questions, drop a comment using one of the buttons at the bottom of this post.
So why would we conduct this exercise now? Well, because we have much more and likely better information to work with. In their Q4 earnings reports, companies have told us how they performed in 2022 and more importantly, they have given us further insight into how their 2023 business year is shaping up. This is key to identifying companies that are pivoting to higher growth through the rest of 2023. These are the stocks that we would like to own this year.
e.g. NFLX, NOW and MSFT are pivoting to higher growth this year. AYX is not.
Beachman’s portfolio YTD performance
This year, my portfolio has returned (as of market close Mar 8th): +22.80%
The six “bedrock” stocks in my portfolio have returned +18.72%
The nine “future leader” holdings in my portfolio have returned +32.55%
Along with these 15 positions, I currently have a 10% cash position
By most measures, these YTD returns would satisfy an investor. So go to cash and call it a day? No way! We want to keep looking for opportunities to earn alpha…we want to beat the indexes again this year.
So lets cover all these topics, questions and stocks in upcoming posts in this series…