If in cash and FOMO, what now? - An update using current market signals

Markets: Have markets bottomed or are they topping? Is it time to buy in?

A mere 14 days ago to the tee, I wrote about the growing FOMO in the market, especially among investors who were sitting on the sidelines in a sizable cash position. Read that post here.

That seems like ages ago…lol.

Since then I have received many questions about whether it is a good time to buy, whether I am hedging, whether I still think that markets will drop in the near future, whether I am raising cash…

There are many confused investors out there. Markets are indicating that we are over-extended, that we are over-bought, that greed is increasing and that stocks need a breather.

When a stock like UPST 0.00 that delivered another terrible Q4 earnings report surges 20% higher, one has to step back and wonder what the heck is going on.

Other macro signs indicate that the US economy can withstand more pressure (higher interest rates) if needed.

Today’s retail sales print tells us that the consumer is stronger than we think. While the consumer’s sentiment is depressed, they are still opening their wallets to buy goods and services that they like and of course that they need.

Yesterday’s CPI report was slightly higher than estimated, but it is still moving lower…in the direction that we prefer. What struck me the most in the report was that hourly labor rates dropped. This is a good thing because labor is the one corner of inflation strength that the US Feds are closely monitoring.

If you have been following my 2023 re-positioning series, then you have read my perspective on how markets will behave over the next four quarters.

Yet, we find ourselves here again today, trying to make sense of the markets and to figure out how to position our portfolios.

Here is what Beachman is seeing under the covers in the markets and what he is doing with his portfolio….