Good-bye 2024...Hello 2025

Portfolio: Taking stock of what worked and did not work last year and setting goals for the new year

So that’s another successful investing year in the bag.

Even though markets gifted me with my 2nd best investing year ever, real life events are always quick to put things into perspective.

I have a loving family that cares for me deeply and I am blessed with the gift of an early retirement. My amazing wife and I celebrated our 25th wedding anniversary a few days ago. Both my kids are graduating (one from college and the other from high school) and each of them are onto new adventures in 2025.

On the flip side, we have aging parents that need more TLC now. Our kids are at critical stages in their young adult lives…perhaps needing more gentle coaching and guidance without helicoptering over them. And two of my son’s high school friends just lost their fathers over the past few months…men of my age with young kids.

Life is always full of twists and turns. It behooves us to cherish our family and friends. One day at a time and don’t take anything for granted.

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In 2024, the Beachman portfolio returned +71%.

Over the past five years, the Beachman portfolio has returned an average of +123% at a compounded annual growth rate of +44%.

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In 2024, we once again trounced all the indexes. They performed as follows:

• SP500 +23%

• Dow Jones +13%

• Nasdaq +29%

The Beachman portfolio hit an all time high return of +81% on Dec 17th 2024.

Alongside the main portfolio, my trading record continued to improve. 76% of my trades were profitable at an average return of +10%.

2023 was an amazing year and I did not expect to get even close to that performance in 2024. But the markets were kind to us.

My Beachman’s scoring algorithm continues to mature in its ability to pick better stocks. These quarterly scorecards help me stay invested in stocks that are likely to provide superior returns for my portfolio.

In 2024, we took things to the next level with our technical analysis on the charts. We are now using backtested BUY and SELL signals along with overbought and oversold indicators to guide our entries, adds, trims and exits.

We also recently launched a new substack Beachman’s Salty Trades focused solely on trading and speculating in the markets. Subscribe here.

My best stock pick of the year became my 15th multi-bagger in just 3 months!

My worst stock pick is currently down -40%.

My best trades were in SOUN, TSLA, MSTR and market shorts against the SP500 and the Nasdaq.

My worst trades involved farting around with AEHR and SP500 0DTE options.

My biggest 2024 learnings involved the use of options flow data to guide my long term investing and short term trading. Today, more than 56% of daily market action is options-related and this trading volume has deep implications on how stocks, etfs and indexes move. Learning to read these tea leaves has proven to be quite profitable.

All in all, 2024 was another wild one, but now we enter 2025 with a lot more global macro economic uncertainty.

As I have mentioned in previous new year posts, I appreciate the benefits of specific, measurable goals. It is the engineer in me….or maybe a bit of OCD in my personality. First, let’s take stock of how I did in 2024 and then I will list out my goals for the new year.

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Progress against my 2024 goals

1. I will design and test an approach for identifying the next set of mega cap tech stocks…to find the stock(s) that will become the next member(s) of the elite magnificent 7.

   I completely failed against this goal. In fact, I clean forgot about it sometime in the summer. I will take another stab at this in 2025.

2. I will initiate 2 international portfolio positions and execute 12 international trades.

   US markets were just too healthy in 2024. I regularly monitored emerging and international markets, but nothing stood out as interesting enough. There was no point in putting money into low conviction sectors.

3. I will rethink my approach with the podcast.

   I made a clear decision about this in Sept 2024 when I decided to stop publishing podcast audio episodes. It gave me the mental space and time to focus on my other investing ideas, content and actions. No regrets from my side. The Substack app continues to improve their reader AI software.

4. I will measure my portfolio’s 2024 returns against the DJI, SP500 and Nasdaq and beat them all this year.

   As you can see from the numbers above, I more than met this goal. 💪🏽

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My 2025 goals

1. I will design and test an approach for identifying the next set of mega cap tech stocks. The idea is to find the stock(s) that will become the next member(s) of the elite magnificent 7.

2. I will improve my trading approach (Beachman’s Salty Trades) with the use of technical indicators and adherence to clear, crisp, documented guard rails.

3. I will measure my portfolio’s 2025 returns against the DJI, SP500 and Nasdaq and beat them all this year.

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With a new US administration coming in, there is more uncertainty as to what 2025 holds in store for investors. No one is really sure how it is going to play out.

That said, there is no reason why we cannot beat the indexes with smart, well-planned and proficiently-executed portfolio management.

Here is how we can do it:

• We keep it simple and don’t overthink or over analyze things.

• We stick to our process, our fundamental analysis, our tracking of leading macro indicators.

• We pay close attention to earnings reports while checking and double checking if the investment thesis is still alive and strong.

• We do not get fooled by rosy free cash flow numbers when SBC and shareholder dilution is rampant behind the curtain.

• We monitor stock valuations on the basis of market cap, debt, cash, revenues, margins and forward growth estimates.

• We use GAAP numbers, not management defined non-standard, adjusted metrics or rule of 40 or rule of 80 or whatever.

• We seek out good sources of information…staying away from pump and dump characters who are talking their book.

• We remind ourselves that no one can predict what markets will do.

• If you hear of a good investing or trade idea, it is probably already too late.

Successfully managing a portfolio is a lot like growing bonsai. You have to give it the necessary attention - water, air, light, pruning, tweaking, shaping, support. We have used these bonsai techniques in the Beachman community for five years running and our results speak for themselves.

I am excited about the coming year. I am looking forward to seeing what the investing and trading gods have in store for us.

Let’s go conquer 2025!